Islamabad: The incidents of the release of Taliban leader Mulla Ghani Baradar by Pakistan and killing of a top anti-Taliban police commander General Abdul Raziq Achakzai, in the same week in Kandahar, have led to many suspicions about the future of the nascent peace process between Taliban and American administration.
General Abdul Raziq, known for his strong anti-Taliban stance, was killed by a lone shooter—bodyguard of the provincial governor—in a highly secured governor house compound in Kandahar.
At the time of shooting, the top American general in Afghanistan, Gen Scott Miller, and a large number of American and NATO military officers were also present- all of whom escaped the burst of AK-47 by the alleged Taliban ‘insider’.
For Afghans and their leadership, General Raziq, known to the Taliban militia as the savage commander of Kandahar, was one of Afghanistan the only effective commander, a major bulwark; keeping the Taliban militia from their birth place—Kandahar.
As usual, the Afghan president Dr Ashraf Ghani, without conducting any investigation into this high-profile murder, resorted to accusing Pakistan the very next day. Ghani asked Pakistan to take action against handlers of the ‘lone Shooter,’ who, Ghani claimed, was in contact with across the border town of Chaman in Pakistan.
Dr Ghani’s statement was followed by the US. The US secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened Pakistan of dire consequences if prompt actions were not taken against “elements’ across the border.
“We had made clear that the US policy with respect to south-central Asia has not changed, that our expectation is that Pakistan will not provide safe harbor to terrorists on their western border….We couldn’t make that message any more clear and that Pakistan will be held to account if they don’t see about it… If they’re not sincere in that effort,” Mike Pompeo warned Pakistan following Afghan president Ghani’s accusation.
However, for Afghans, merely accusing Pakistan was enough to answer the probing questions involving the murder of General Raziq Achakzai.
However, it was not all.
Questions were also raised about the dubious circumstances wherein the General turned out to be main and sole target of the shooter amid top commanders of the Resolute Support Mission (RSM).
Why the Taliban alleged ‘insider’ aimed only at Gen Raziq, sparing a much bigger target, Gen Scott Miller, standing close by the victim in the same compound? This question is also coupled with the protocol issue; as in Afghanistan where the top US or NATO commanders are present, the entire security of the area rests with US/Nato troops – to avert any chances of the insider attacks. How can an intruder get so close to his target in a high security zone breaking a number of security layers?
The Afghans firmly believe that it was only Gen Raziq, who stood in Taliban’s way, like a rock and his removal from the scene seem to be a conspiracy on part of the US-Taliban future plan of creating a ‘free zone’ for the militia in Kandahar.
This “creating a free zone” for the militia within Afghanistan is one of the major demands the Taliban leadership has made as part of ensuing direct peace dialogue with US government.
These suspicions of the Afghans were further strengthened when Pakistan released two top Taliban leaders – Mulla Abdul Ghani Baradar, the co-founder of Afghan Taliban, along with another high-ranking militant commander Mulla Abdul Samad Sani.
The release of Taliban leaders and other militia prisoners held in Pakistan and Afghanistan was alleged to be another major demand of Taliban during their maiden direct interaction with US envoy Zalmi Khalilzad as confidence-building measures.
Similarly, the five Taliban senior leaders, released from the Guantanamo bay prison and kept in house arrest in Qatar for years, were allowed to be part of the Taliban political office in Doha to be part of the peace dialogue.
No doubt the sequence of these few important events that happened successively over the period of mere two weeks signifies the progress on the resolution of the prolonged Afghan conflict.
In the first week of October, US special envoy for Afghanistan, Khalilzad, visited Kabul and Pakistan then headed toward United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and finally to Qatar – hosts of Taliban political offices.
Khalilzad was the first top American leader who interacted directly with the Taliban militia leaders. This was later confirmed by the militia spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid saying that the “Taliban leaders discussed ending the Afghan conflict with the US envoy.”
Those in the know say that the Taliban put three conditions for further continuation of Talks with the US; top of which is the release of Taliban prisoners, creating a free zone for the militia inside Afghanistan and, giving a timetable for the withdrawal of the international forces from Afghanistan.
According to the Afghan senior officials Taliban demanded to be provided a free zone in the Kandahar province. On October 18, the US general Scott Miller headed to Kandahar for a high-level interaction with the Afghan leadership including General Raziq to discuss the demands of Taliban, specially providing them ‘free zone’ inside Kandahar – a demand, which Gen Raziq opposed. He was heard to be saying that Taliban would be allowed in Kandahar over his dead-body.
This was coupled with the release from detention of Mulla Baradar, which is seemed to be part of confidence-building measures taken to nudge the peace process further.
According to media reports, the release of Mullah Baradar was discussed during interactions of Zalmi Khalilzad with Pakistan leadership when he visited Islamabad prior to heading to Qatar—as Doha hosts the political office of the Taliban.
These reports also refer to the role of Qatari foreign minister who visited Islamabad and has likely played an important role in pushing the peace process with Taliban in its early stages.
American and Pakistani interlocutors believed that a meaningful peace process in Afghanistan could be relatively pushed further by the release of Mullah Baradar, who is widely respected and had significant influence within the rank and file of Afghan Taliban.
However, keeping in view the uncertain Afghan political landscape, un-reliable American approach towards the Afghan insurgency and, failures of a number of such initiatives in the recent past, Pakistan needs to play its part with extra care. As like the past, the two major issues are still likely to be; the willingness of the American administration to engage sincerely with Taliban militia in peace negotiations plus the willingness of the Taliban to sit and reach a final agreement with the Kabul government.
Pakistan must kept this fact in mind that another high-profile or deadly terrorist attack in Kabul or any of the Afghan cities, if happened, might lead to a reversal of the peace process, as the Afghan government has a proven tendency of reverting back, leveling allegations and subsequently withdrawing or refusing to pursue peace negotiations.
In the peace-dialogue process, Pakistan’s major challenge might be to facilitate the process and ensure a stable balance of power in Kabul. Additionally, the release of Baradar—most high-profile of Taliban official in Pakistani custody—is surely a big step to push forward the dialogue but the Afghan and US leadership will demand other steps too; not only to facilitate the peace process but also ensure its success.
Lastly, Pakistan should also keep a watch on the developments, especially in Kandahar following the murder of General Raziq, as ordinary Afghans have got more suspicious about the future role of Washington’s likely alliance with Taliban militia in the region.
